I väntan på Jesus

 

 

In this recent blogpost by British ecological economist Tim Watkins I found this shocking graph (look at the graph in the original post to have it enlarged), with data from Mike Shedlock at "Mish Talk", this blogpost by him: 

 

 

 

This is about a 15 % decline in industrial output in about six years. If this decline pace continues, then there is no industrial production in Germany in about 36 years, or in 2060. Then I'm 76 years old, if I'm allowed to live. 

 

But we know that the collapse of industrial civilization will be exponential, meaning collapsing with an accelerated rate of decline. 

 

And we know that Germany will be empty of people long before the last industrial process ceases. 

 

Therefore one could think that the last German human being dies around the beginning of 2048 (twelve years before 2060), my upper limit for how long this madness of civilization could possibly last. It has to do with the conventional oil reserves, about which I have written before. 

 

Germany is (or maybe was?) the greatest industrial powerhouse of Europe, one of Europe's richest countries (yes even one of the richest in the world), therefore this graph is so alarming to me. 

 

Or, it's not alarming, it's deeply comforting, that Babylon, the Empire of the Antichrist, is falling at last, albeit slowly. If the industrial production of a country is collapsing, then the country is collapsing. And if the centre falls, so falls also its peripheries. 

 

If Germany has such great problems, what about Romania, what about Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary? Nobody seems to care. Maybe we will never get to know the fate of such humble countries before we die.

 

We just see more and more foreign beggars in the streets. And a lot of foreign homeless people. 

 

Watkins ends his blogpost in this way:

"The problem at this point is that we have no historical precedent from which we might model a collapse.  Previous civilisations collapsed from a far lower standard of living and a far less complex economy.  So that all we can learn from them is what our final destination will look like – most likely something akin to the Anglo-Saxon economy but with localised use of machinery and guns.  How – and especially how rapidly – we get from here to there though, is a complete unknown.  However, insofar as we have traded resilience for complexity, there is good reason to believe that our – that is, the European economies – fall from grace will be fast.

Following a rapid collapse, we will at least be able to celebrate the fact that wind and water will be providing 100 percent of the energy consumed in our post-industrial economy… something which will no doubt take our minds off a life expectancy which will have fallen below thirty."

 

The situation for the US national debt

On December 29, 2023, the US national debt surpassed 34 trillion dollars for the first time. Since that time, or in two months, it has reached 34,352 trillion dollars. 352 billion dollars in exactly two months. If this pace continues throughout this year, the US will be at 35,1 trillion dollars in the end of 2024, a rise of 2,1 trillion dollars in one year (about this is the pace of the rise since 2022). But we know that the US national debt is rising exponentially, so I expect even higher numbers.

If the pace of the future rise is linear, averaging 2,1 trillion dollars a year, then US will reach 100 trillion, a completely unsustainabe and unbearable number, in 31,4 years, or in 2055. 

But that will not happen, because of the exponential factor. Therefore the end might come for the US already way before 2048. 

US will collapse before the 100 trillion mark is reached. Way before that. 

Take heed of this, and prepare accordingly.