Countries that during the last twenty years has become net oil importers from being net oil exporters
(This blogpost can very well be read to the very beautiful song "Breathe" by "The Cure)
Firstly, take a look at this Wikipedia-list of 74 oil exporting countries. It has a lot of outdated information. About ten years ago, oil geologist Jeffrey J. Brown said that we had 155 oil importing countries, and this list has expanded since. If you count all the countries I have listed below, 39 countries, then it is 74 minus 39 (from the lists below), which is 35. This means that we have only 35 oil exporting countries in the world right now. And three of them, Sudan, Cameroon and Timor-Leste, have already joined or are soon joining the oil importing countries. Then we have only 32 oil exporting countries.
35 oil exporting countries, that is 160 oil importing countries, which harmonizes with Brown's data.
Of those 74 countries in the Wikipedia list (which gives a false and misleading impression of the number of net oil exporting countries that we really have) above, the following are net oil importing countries:
Mongolia, Belize, Georgia, Poland, Lithuania, Czechia, Barbados, Ireland, Italy, Mauritania, Suriname, Guatemala, Germany, Peru, Philippines, Greece, Albania, Papua New Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast), Thailand, China, Netherlands, New Zealand, Tunisia, Cuba and Slovakia.
Here is a list of countries that during the 20 last years have joined the oil importing countries:
2004: UK and Indonesia
2006: Uzbekistan
2009: Bolivia
2010: Egypt
2011: Argentina
2013: Syria
2014: Malaysia
2015: Vietnam
Before 2016: Trinidad and Tobago
2018: Denmark
2019: Yemen
2020: Australia
2023: Sudan planned to become a net oil importer this year. See this article from 2018.
Soon to become net oil importers: Cameroon, Timor-Leste.
* * *
As you see, the pace of loss is rapid. Almost one country for every year becomes a net oil importer. Oil exports are rapidly dwindling.
You can propose more countries if I have missed some!
If you look at the Wikipedia-article with the 74 oil exporting countries, you see that it has a figure of 44,936,873 mbd of total oil exports in the world. It's a little more than what EIA says Crude + Condensate oil exports are today. We can see what the number will be if we subtract the volume of oil exports from all the 39 countries listed above that should have fallen away from the list. The result is this:
44, 936,873 minus 2,546,535, which makes 42 390 338. So this is with outdated data, which often is from 2010-2016 regarding the 39 countries that has fallen off the list, and 2020 and 2022 data for the top 33 oil exporting countries.
So one can compare this 42,4 mbd of global oil exports with these three charts that I used in this blogpost from 27.10.2023:
Here is a reprise of the calculation of the end of oil exports using the second chart above, that I had in this blogpost:
"So according to EIA we were at about 41 mbd of global net crude+condensate oil exports in 2018, not 35-36, which Brown would have it at, I think. How many years of "ANE oil" would that give us, if we calculate that we have about 41 mbd now, which is a conservative estimate? 41 mbd divided by 4 (see the footnote 2) mbd gives us about 10 years. It brings us to the beginning of the year 2034. Remember that this is a linear scenario. Add then the exponential factor, and we are easily at 2027-2030, in about the area where Brown and I have ended up. This is strange, that beginning with very much higher numbers, gives us so similar results. Even beginning with the 55 mbd in the "All Liquids scenario" doesn't buy us many years, only a few, relative to Brown's and my scenarios. This should alarm everybody. How many years are three years actually? It's nothing in the grand scheme of things, and passes by very fast, at least for those who are 40 +."
