The terminal decline of Russia's oil production
(a continuation and an update of my blogpost in 2022, Russia's oil production is in decline. The three top oil producers in the world have peaked or are near their peak. I have problems keeping up, so much has happened and is happening all the time in this turbulent field of knowledge)
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Let's begin with the basics:
"The world relies heavily on three nations for crude: the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia. Together, they account for nearly 45% of global total oil supply."
(From the article "Saudi Arabia Reveals Oil Output Is Near Its Ceiling", by Javier Blas, in Bloomberg, July 21, 2022. Let me add that these three countries also have a substantial percentage of the world's oil reserves, conventional and unconventional)
Of these three nations, Saudi Arabia (which I clearly showed in my recent blogpost here) and Russia are in terminal oil production decline, and US oil production will soon be, beginning in about 2025, which is my best guess and a viewpoint that is supported by many oil experts.
This article on www.oilprice.com from February 2023 says in a headline: "BP analysts: Russia's oil output could decrease from 12 million barrels per day in 2019 to 7-9 million bpd in 2035."
That Russia's oil production is in decline, is pretty evident from the several oil production cuts the country has undergone in recent years, a trend that seems to continue into this year, 2024. See for confirmation this article from November 30, 2023. See also, for deeper study, this article from September 21, 2023.
This article from May 11, 2023 says it shortly and clearly: "As a result of war, sanctions, and embargoes, Russia’s oil and gas industry is shrinking."
This article from March 5, 2023, says the same: "Russian crude oil production (including gas condensates) last year fell to 512 million metric tons (about 10.3 million barrels a day), a 9 % decline from the 2019 record level. It was the first decrease in Russian oil production since 2008."
So Russia peaked already in 2019.
Also Russian oil exports are suffering deeply and sharply. This article from February 14, 2024 says: "Russia’s monthly fossil fuel export revenues fell by 10% (EUR 70 mn per day) in January 2024 compared to the prior month. Russia’s revenues from fossil fuel exports have been falling steadily since September 2023."
A 10 % decline in one month is a staggering amount.
There is no doubt: Russia is past its oil peak, and the farther into economic collapse the country goes, the firmer this fact gets. Russia is a deeply broken country because of its Ukrainian war. See this youtubevideo from December 16, 2023 for confirmation.
And it is as many analysts say: All hinges now on the US shale oil industry, to avoid the terminal decline of global "All Liquids" production, and it is a "Red Queen Syndrome" phenomenon (this is often touted by Steve St. Angelo on the blog SrsRocco Report), US shale has to produce more and more, faster and faster all the time, just to keep global oil production flat. In the end, something has to break, and the terminal decline of "All Liquids" is here, and a fast collapse of industrial civilization will follow not long time after.
Because of all this, I think the following graph by Dennis Coyne in this blogpost on the Peak Oil Barrel blog, is way too optimistic:
