2034 is the uppermost possible limit for the end of conventional global net oil exports, minus condensate
(this blogpost can very well be read to the beautiful "Lullaby" by "The Cure")
In an interview 2021 (1), peak oil author and blogger Alice Friedemann said that 2035 we have only half as much global oil production, All Liquids, as when we peaked in November 2018. I think this is realistic, albeit it feels pessimistic.
That takes us to about 51 mbd in 2035, because the world peaked in 2018 at 102,4 mbd, All Liquids.
If we, as I assumed in this recent blogpost, lose our last conventional global net oil exports in 2037, then we have two years more of overall oil decline (from 2035), and if we, as I assume, lose at least about 3 mbd every year of overall oil production (All Liquids), at that point, then we are at 46 mbd of overall oil production (All Liquids) in the beginning of 2037. That makes room for losing the 55 mbd of oil exports, All Liquids, that I have encountered in the most optimistic charts I have found, for example this graph:
(I found the chart here)
If we then count only conventional crude oil exports, minus condensate, then the end comes way before 2037, and it's actually the conventionals that really counts, it's where the diesel lies, diesel, the motor of civilization, of all transportation.
Secondly, we have only 29 mbd of conventional global net oil exports to lose, between 2024 and the end of the conventional oil exports, if we count from now on, based on Jeffrey J. Brown's calculations. Then the conventional global oil production, minus condensate, which is now at 68 mbd, needs to be at 34 mbd in order to be at the half point between now and the end of it. Let's think that this 34 mbd of conventional crude only (minus condensate) happens in 2035, when All Liquids are at their half point (this is an optimistic estimate, because conventionals only, decline faster than All Liquids). Then the end of global conventional crude net exports (minus condensate) has to come before 2035, because we have 29 mbd to lose, not 34 mbd. We might lose the last drops of those 29 mbd already in 2034, because so late in the game we lose at least 5 mbd every year of conventional oil exports. So this make 2034 the uppermost possible limit for the end of conventional oil exports (minus condensate), if Alice Friedemanns predictions would get vindicated by the future.
(1) From Derrick Jensen's interview with Alice Friedemann (she is the one operating the blog "Energy Skeptic") one year ago, titled "Alice Friedemann—Life After Fossil Fuels book— Derrick Jensen Resistance Radio 2021-09-05".
