I väntan på Jesus

Is the Permian shale basin beginning to peak?

Publicerad 2024-03-09 22:00:00 i Det profetiska året 2024, Peak Oil, oljetoppen, och energifrågor i allmänhet, Skifferolja (shale oil),

(This blogpost can very well be read to the sound of the melancholic hip-hop song "Ibbe Q Feat. Nadia K - Kom Hem", which was made to the memory of a hip-hop martyr)

"The Permian shale oil basin" is where the last growth of the global oil industry has taken place over the last years. It's a gigant, bigger than Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, which was before the greatest oil field in the world. Now it's the Permian's turn to have that title.

Is the Permian basin beginning to peak? Firstly, check out the following nine fateful articles from 2023 and 2024 + one recent Youtubevideo. There has been written and said a lot about it recently, but also in 2022, 2021 and 2020:

-"U.S. Shale Boom Shows Signs of Peaking as Big Oil Wells Disappear", March 8, 2023, by Colin Eaton, on Wall Street Journal.

-"America’s Oil Power Might Be Near Its Peak", February 19, 2024, by Bob Henderson, on Wall Street Journal.

-"Beginning of the End for the Permian", January 4, 2024, on Art Berman's blog.

-"Eagle Ford Shale–A Preview of Permian Decline", January 17, 2024, on Art Berman's blog.

-Natural resource investors "Goehring and Rozencwajg" wrote in May 2023 this blogpost on their blog that the Permian basin was depleting faster than generally believed and that output might peak already in 2023.

-"The Permian Basin Is Depleting Faster Than We Thought", "Goehring and Rozencwajg"on their blog, 06/30/2023

"Peaking U.S. Shale Oil Production Supports Higher Long-Term Oil Prices", November 2, 2023 on "LEO wealth".

-"The Imminent Peak In Permian Oil: What Does it Mean For Investors?", by David Messler, on July 31, 2023, on "OilPrice.com".

From the article: "Natural Resources analyst firm, Goerhring & Rosenscwajg-G&R, has modeled production trends that suggest that "Hubbert's Peak" for the Permian will hit late next year. Hubbert was a geologist who theorized that once half a basin's reserves had been recovered, it would have essentially “peaked.” The graph below, taken from a G&R report highlights their expectations. G&R could be of some, but the point remains, there is an inflection point coming that will tilt the slope downward. The firm estimates using their models that about 20 bn barrels of commercially recoverable oil remain in the basin. At current production rates, that’s about 11 years of output."

-"Bengt’s Energy Blog: The end of the U.S, shale oil revolution", April 11, 2023, by Bengt Söderbergh, on "Absolicon".

-Let me end with this rebuttal in the Doomberg debate, on Youtube, by Chris Martenson, where he also study the US shale oil industry in detail: "Peak Cheap Oil Debate - Doomberg / Peak Prosperity Podcast show Review", 13.1.2024.

Study then the following four fateful charts from this recent blogpost by Ovi on the blog "Peak Oil Barrel":

(DPR means Drilling Productivity Report. The "total" means all shale oil plays in the US)