Jeffrey J. Brown's Export Land Model is still valid. It's a mathematical certainty.
(from one of my comments to this post of mine at Reddit/Peak Oil)
"Even if Brown was wrong in some of his predictions in 2006, his Export Land Model is still valid. It's on solid mathematical ground. Brown's coworker Sam Foucher is said to be a mathematical genius. It is a mathematical certainty that if an oil export country increases its domestic oil consumption by a larger percentage than the percentage by which its oil production is growing, its net oil exports will fall, and if the domestic oil consumption rises exponentially (which it in fact does out there, in reality, in oil exporting countries, yes in all countries) the fall of net oil exports will be at an accelerated rate, i.e. exponential* (and this decline will pick up pace when the overall oil production of the country begins to decline, and even more so if the decline is exponential, i.e. at an accelerated rate, which it will be). This has in fact happened, globally, with conventional oil and conventional oil exports, therefore I do not trust the data of the energy agencies and institutes, which do not use the Export Land Model, as far as I know, otherwise they would never come up with their distorted data. These institutes do not do justice to this mathematical certainty that I described (also in ther calculations of "All Liquids" oil exports). And with all your criticism you cannot bend the laws of mathematics. This is the real question here, not if Brown was right in a few calculations in 2006. You should study the Export Land Model. It has an own Wikipedia-article."
