The pace of the present average global surface temperature rise projected 800 years into the future
(This information was so important that I had to break my promise not to blog any more. This blogpost can be read to the sound of the beautiful reggae songs "Defend right" and "Everyday" by "Dezarie")
In this Peak Oil Youtube video chat from the end of 2022, with Ukrainian-Canadian hippie and peakoiler Andrii Zvorygin and John Peach (who is an engineer and MIT mathematician/physicist), the latter shows a chart where he projects the average global surface temperature rise since the seventies, 800 years into the future. With a modest 2,3 % annual rise of the global surface temperature (a pace that has risen since the seventies, since 2010 it has been on about a 3-4 % annual rise, see the chart below, and it seems like the pace just accelerates exponentially), the earth would reach the boiling point of water after only 300 years and the temperature of the sun after only 800 years. This is very, very sobering. And this is with an approach that does not even let the 2,3 % annual rise accelerate at all, which it in fact does in reality (from 2,3 % to 3-4 % only in a few decades). Take then an exponential rise of those 2,3 % annually, and you can imagine how fast we will reach the boiling point of water and then the temperature of the sun. This is the nature of the exponential factor, which always catches us with surprise. And this is how abrupt the present global heating in fact is. It is beyond imagination.
The same pertains to the end of oil, and especially the end of global oil exports. In the end it will be extremely abrupt.
And as Andrii Zvorygin said in the video above, 800 years is not a long time. I would add, 800 years ago Saint Francis founded the Franciskan Order. About almost 300 years ago the industrial revolution started slowly in England (see this essay and this paper and this paper, some scholars say 1730, some say 1750 as the beginning of the industrial revolution).
(Chart from this page. Do you see the exponential factor in this graph? Now the temperature is, according to official data, around 1,5 above the 1850-1900 average. Put it in the graph and you see the exponential factor even more clearly. This page at Copernicus says the following:
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"The global mean temperature for the past twelve months (Feb 2023 – Jan 2024) is the highest on record, at 0.64°C above the 1991-2020 average and 1.52°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.")
