Something about "stealth Peak Oil"
I think the most likely way forward for the official data and official view on global oil production and Peak Oil, is a kind of "stealth Peak Oil" (see what Kurt Cobb wrote about this concept in 2020, here), where we think we have a lot of oil (because we have begun to count all kinds of strange stuff), but it is more and more expensive, and since the decline of EROEI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested) is very difficult to measure (everything here is almost a guess work), we will not discover, at least not publicly, when we are really peaking and the decline begins, we will just watch the global economy decline more and more, just as it has since 2005, when conventional crude oil (minus condensate) peaked. Like watching a very slow train wreck, a wreck that goes so slowly, that we never ever really understand the reasons for it, how the puzzle pieces fit together, the whole picture, it will be buried below a mountain of small details, just as it almost always is at www.oilprice.com, where almost only Gail Tverberg sees the big picture, it sometimes seems to me.
(This was my comment to this recent blogpost by Dennis Coyne at the blog Peak Oil Barrel, you see the comment and the future responses here)
