According to actuary and academic Peak Oil-expert Gail Tverberg, the decline of oil has begun.
"One part of today’s problem is the fact that the world’s fossil fuel supply, particularly oil, is becoming depleted. Extraction is not rising sufficiently to keep up with population growth. In fact, total fossil fuel extraction may begin to fall in the near future. In some sense, the fossil fuel supply is no longer adequate to go around. To relieve the stress of inadequate supply, some inefficient users of energy need to have their fossil fuel consumption greatly reduced."
(Gail Tverberg in the article "The bumpy road ahead for the world economy", posted on May 4, 2023 on the blog Our Finite World)
My comment: Gail Tverberg also believes, like Alice Friedemann and many (most?) peakoilers, that global oil production (all liquids) peaked in November 2018 (see this blogpost by Tverberg on July 15, 2021).
This article by Rex Weyler on March 22, 2020, is also a good one about the fact that the decline of oil has begun. It sums up the situation pretty well.
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More from the blogpost by Tverberg.
"[6] The world economy is now headed for a bottleneck. The world economy is similar to a Ponzi Scheme, with growth in the output of goods and services necessary to fund financial promises of many kinds. There are limits to the amounts of fossil fuels available at affordable prices, and the world is hitting those limits now."
"We have known for a very long time that fossil fuel output is limited. Back in 1957, Rear Admiral Hyman Rickover of the US Navy gave a speech warning that world-wide fossil fuel energy supplies were expected to become unaffordable between 2000 and 2050. High oil prices seem to have been a major factor underlying the Great Recession of 2008-2009. This especially affected the US, with its large amount of subprime housing debt. The problems experienced since late 2021 with spiking prices of oil and high prices of imported coal and natural gas are also evidence of the limits the world is reaching."
My comment: The fact that the price of producing natural gas also has risen for a long time, is tough and problematic for the world, because the world oil industry has for a long time compensated for the decline of conventional oil by making Liquefied Natural Gas (so called LNG), which nowadays comprises about 40 % of all so called "oil" (all liquids), according to petroleum geologist Art Berman in this article on "Resilience.org" on January 18, 2023.
This graph is from the same blogpost by Tverberg:
My comment: Notice that Peak Oil-expert Alice Friedemann on the blog "Energy Skeptic" has come to sligthly similar results in her forecasts. She thinks that in 2035 we will have only half of the oil we have today (all liquids). This graph by Tverberg is more radical in its forecast.
I heard from Peak Oil-expert Steve St. Angelo in this recent youtubevideo that we have, during the last decade, been able to rise global oil production by adding a massive amount of debt. That our oil production is totally dependent on mountains of debt. That when this debt bubble begins to burst, oil production will also fall rapidly.
Interesting in this context is also to notice that Sweden in 2014 was considered the most privately indebted nation (see this Swedish article). The most indebted nations are the most vulnerable in a global collapse, so are also those nations without oil of their own, so called "oil importing nations". Sweden is such a nation, that is both very indebted and has no oil of its own. It is also very important to note that neither has Sweden any coal or natural gas of its own. This, coupled with being situated in a relatively very cold climate, spells trouble. This is why I think I will die by starvation around 1.1.2036, at the latest. Within twelve and a half years.
So, although it is true that Global Warming hits the poorest countries of the world hardest, it is also true that Peak Oil and fossil fuel depletion hit the western and northern countries hardest, among other things because they are the least self-sufficient nations, and often have a cold climate. So, in the end it will maybe be plus minus zero. Only with the stark warning that probably oil and other fossil fuel depletion will hit us first, before the worst effects of climate change reaches us. My estimate is that oil depletion will begin to hit us really hard in 2025-2026, when global oil production (all liquids) will begin to decline very fast, and climate change in turn will do the same around 2030, plus minus one year, when we get the first Blue Ocean Event (this is my conservative estimate).
Gail Tverberg writes in the abovementioned blogpost the following about which countries will fare best in a global Collapse:
"If energy consumption falls this rapidly, the world economy will have to adapt in many ways. Economies that cannot tolerate high oil and energy prices are likely to be squeezed out. Based on what already has been happening in Figures 1, 2, and 3, the United States and Europe are especially likely to be adversely affected. The countries that are likely to fare better are ones that don’t require as much energy per capita. These countries are likely to be in warm climates and have relatively poor populations, such as those in Southeast Asia".
