I väntan på Jesus

Ekoteologen Lars Larsens blogg

A correction to my numbers on US national debt in a previous blogpost

Publicerad 2024-03-09 13:20:00 i Civilisationens kollaps, Ekologisk ekonomi, Ekonomisk kollaps, Exponentiell tillväxt och exponentiell nedgång, Finanskriser, Lån och skulder, Skuldbubblan,

The following was the content of the part of this blogpost of mine that I would like to correct: 

 

"The situation for the US national debt

On December 29, 2023, the US national debt surpassed 34 trillion dollars for the first time. Since that time, or in two months, it has reached 34,352 trillion dollars. 352 billion dollars in exactly two months. If this pace continues throughout this year, the US will be at 35,1 trillion dollars in the end of 2024, a rise of 2,1 trillion dollars in one year (about this is the pace of the rise since 2022). But we know that the US national debt is rising exponentially, so I expect even higher numbers.

If the pace of the future rise is linear, averaging 2,1 trillion dollars a year, then US will reach 100 trillion, a completely unsustainabe and unbearable number, in 31,4 years, or in 2055. 

But that will not happen, because of the exponential factor. Therefore the end might come for the US already way before 2048. 

US will collapse before the 100 trillion mark is reached. Way before that. 

Take heed of this, and prepare accordingly."

End quote.

 

This is my correction:

Excuse my negligence. My logical, mathematical, analytical and technical abilities (like my short time memory) are severely damaged by my antipsychotic medication, which eats the brain from the inside, making me unable to work with usual works in this society and unable to make love, and more so for every year. But it does not hinder me from working with very spiritual work, work that does not need much brainstuff, but spirit, spirituality and intuition instead. Like this blog. 

It's often so with me and my research, that the more deeply I dig into a problem, the more severe it seems to me. 

According to this recent article, the US is adding 1 trillion dollars of debt about every 100 days. This is a growth pace of 3,65 trillion dollars every year, much more than my 2,1 trillion dollars above. 

What would such a pace for the debt growth mean, projected linearly upon the future?

When will the US reach the 100 trillion benchmark with such a pace? 100 trillion minus 34,4 is 65,6 trillion. We have 65,6 trillions left before we cross the 100 trillion benchmark. 65,6 divided by the yearly 3,65 trillion is about 18. So we have 18 years left with a linear growth of the debt. This takes us to the beginning of the year 2042. 

If we account for the exponential factor, which we should, the 100 trillion mark will probably be passed in the thirties, in the next decade. Maybe in late 2034, giving us only 10 years (10 years goes incredibly fast, this is my experience). 2034 is also the uppermost possible limit for the end of global net oil exports, according to this blogpost of mine. 

When the US reaches 100 trillion in national debt, the country is bankrupt, it will collapse totally then, at the latest. Probably way before. 

If the US falls, and also all oil importing countries (more than 155), because of the lack of oil to import, it's the end of us. And the Second Coming of Jesus is then upon us. 

Let me remind you of what I wrote in this blogpost on 9.7.2023, when I was even more radical in my estimates, I thought the US could reach the 100 trillion benchmark in 2030: 

"The total revenues in the US federal government budget for 2022 were $4.896 trillion, 19,6 % of GDP. Let's assume that they have that in 2028, too. How much of that will go to the service of the interest on the national debt? Let's assume the interest will be 5 % then, as Peter Schiff assumes. 5 % of 65 is 3,25. 3,25 trillion will go only to servicing the interest in 2028. They will have only 1,64 trillion for the rest of the state's expenditures. The defense budget alone in US is $777 billion (so 2022). The social security costs for 2022 were $1.2 trillion. Well, add those two, and now we are already near 2 trillion. And only two areas of the US financial system and country is covered. How about education? How about energy? How about manufacturing? How about the Green Transition? There will be no money for that in 2028. Except by borrowing astronomical amounts on top of the mountain of debt they already have. So that the interest payments get even greater, exponentially. Maybe US reaches 100 trillion in national debt in 2030. Then a whopping 5 trillion has to go into servicing the national debt alone, and they probably don't have more than 4.896 in total state revenues in 2030. 5 trillion is about 20 % of US GDP. And remember that GDP is the measure of all transactions in the country, not an account of the real wealth of a country."

* * * 

The more I calculate upon petroleum oil and economics, the more clear it becomes to me that we probably haven't much more time than ten years to live, twelve if we are really lucky. I thought for a long time that I will die on 1.1. 2036 of starvation. It's just a little more than one and a half year more time. 

Ten years. Only ten years left to live on this earth. It makes one humble. 

We need to do this: calculate national debt together with oil, to get a clearer picture of the future. 

And it will get really interesting to follow the debt situation in the US from here on. 

But to get a grounded prophetic grasp of the future, it's good to take a deep look at the following areas of knowledge:

1) Overall global oil production, All Liquids, conventional and unconventional oil.

2) The end of global net oil exports, All Liquids, conventional and unconventional oil.

3) The end of our global oil reserves, All Liquids, conventional and unconventional oil. 

4) Our national debt situation, projected upon the future, especially the US national debt. 

And all these fields of knowledge point in the same direction, to the end of civilization in the thirties, and they make prophecy much less speculative. Just that, speculation and obscure mysticism, is the weakness of many prophets and prophecies.  

Om

Min profilbild

Lars Larsen

Född 1984 i Finland. Norrman, bor i Stockholm, Sverige. Poet, ekoteolog och ekofilosof (dock inte en akademisk någondera, fastän han studerade teologi i nästan tre år vid Åbo Akademis universitet), kallas också allmänt "Munken" (han är munk i en självgrundad klosterorden, "Den Heliga Naturens Orden"), han kallar sig själv "Skogsmannen Snigelson" och "Lasse Lushjärnan" på grund av vissa starka band till naturen och djuren, grundade bland annat genom många år av hemlöshet boende i tält, kåta, grotta och flera hyddor i Flatens naturreservat, Nackareservatet och "Kaknästornsskogen" utanför Stockholm. Han debuterade som poet 2007 med "Över floden mig", utgiven av honom själv, han har även gett ut ett ekoteologiskt verk, "Djurisk teologi. Paradisets återkomst", på Titel förlag 2010. Han har gett ut diktsamlingen "Naturens återkomst" på Fri Press förlag 2018 tillsammans med sin före detta flickvän Titti Spaltro. Lars yrken är två, städare och målare (byggnader). Just nu bor han på Attendo Herrgårdsvägen, ett psykiatrisk gruppboende för mentalsjuka i Danderyd, Stockholm. Hans adress är: Herrgårdsvägen 25, 18239 Danderyd, Sverige. Man kan nå honom i kommentarsfältet på denna blogg. Hans texter på denna blogg är utan copyright, tillhörande "Public Domain" Han är författare till texterna, om ingen nämns.

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