15 years of global oil reserves left?
I have in this blogpost stated that our global oil reserves may run out in 2043-2045 (in my corrected calculations, in 2048). I thought that was the most radical estimate.
But there are even more radical estimates out there.
So for example peakoiler John Peach suggests, in this recent Youtube video by Andrii Zvorygin (see the part beginning at 10.00 minutes into the video and then further), that we have 15-20 years left of global oil reserves, or 563 billion barrels of conventional oil. The conventionals is what counts here. And Peach suggests that we use 37 billion barrels of oil per year. 563 divided by 37 is 15,2. In my blogpost that I linked to above from May this year I calculated that we had 585 billion barrels left, but I calculated the years that were left using a 30 billion barrels per day figure, because I subtracted all the oil except Crude + Condensate from the figure. This John Peach hasn't done, and therefore he comes up with this 15 year figure. So the 20 year figure is probably closer to the truth.
But there are others who also have come to this 15 years of reserves left or even less. Just read this article:
"Big Oil could see proven reserves run out in less than 15 years", (Oil & Gas Journal, May 5, 2021).
Two years have elapsed since that prediction, so now we should have only less than 13 years of oil reserves left for Big Oil. That takes us to 2036 or just before, the pivotal year I thought I would die, some time ago.
Remember also the radical numbers in this blogpost of mine, which was not believed in, the numbers were too radical.
I seek further on the internet for radical estimates. In this post on Religious Forum the writer believed, in March 2018, that we had 19 years of oil reserves left. This year it is 14 years of oil left. This article from September 2021 says that US and China has 17 years left, which this year makes 15 years left.
What did "the father of Peak Oil", Colin J. Campbell (who died last year), say about the oil reserves? In the article "The end of oil is closer than you think" in The Guardian in April 2005, Campbell said:
" "About 944bn barrels of oil has so far been extracted, some 764bn remains extractable in known fields, or reserves, and a further 142bn of reserves are classed as 'yet-to-find', meaning what oil is expected to be discovered. If this is so, then the overall oil peak arrives next year," he says."
"Bn" is billion. Did Campbell only think about conventional oil here? He might have (1). But he might also have included heavy oil and tar sands, because they have a long history, they were in operation at the time he said those things. Shale oil was definitively not counted.
Though, in my previous calculations, I calculated only conventionals. If Campbell counted both heavy oil and tar sands reserves, the outlook for the oil industry is even more bleak.
But let´s work out the math of what Campbell said, here. 764 bn + 142 bn = 906 bn barrels. That was in April 2005. More than 18 years has elapsed since then. And supposing that the average use of conventional oil between 2005 and 2023 is about 28 (my guesswork), then 18 X 28 = 504 bn. 906 minus 504 is 402 bn barrels of oil. So according to Campbells old estimate, we should now have about 402 bn barrels of oil left in the reserves, of conventional oil. How many years does this make with our current consumption? 402 divided by 30 is 13,4 years. So if we follow Campbells old estimate from 2005, we should run of out conventional oil reserves in the end of 2036. That's one of the most radical predictions I have heard (comment added later: maybe the failed predictions in this article are even more radical). But much has changed since, and probably there was many factors that Campbell did not take into account back then, so I still think that it's more plausible that we have 20 years left. Just think about Campbells failed predictions of Peak Oil, but that failure was much due to the rise of unconventional oil, which cannot really be counted here, in the reserve estimates, because all that oil is completely dependent on massive, unpayable debt and burning through massive amount of investment money.
But, mind you, Campbell's estimate comes close to, or plays in the same division as the utterly radical numbers in this blogpost of mine, where they said that Saudi Arabia according to certain calculations would run out of oil reserves in 2032, numbers which was not believed, they were too radical.
So we should take heed of this and prepare for the worst, and not think we have very much time, this will fool us to think there is no need for living with urgency in these End Times. Even if we had 50 years of oil reserves left, as many think, it's also very little, it means that civilization will end during my lifetime.
And in the end, civilization does not last until the last barrel of oil in our oil reserves is consumed. It collapses way before that. This is very important to notice.
(1) It's very strange that people often don't specify what kind of "oils" they count in their calculations and results (so John Peach and Colin Campbell). I have also been confused in this regard.
