I väntan på Jesus

On May 23, 2023, Steve St. Angelo, my favourite peakoiler, wrote on his blog SrsRocco Report (it's behind a paywall and the article is not possible to link to) that:

 

"With the world running full speed toward the Energy Cliff, the global oil supply will get into serious trouble after 2025".

 

It resonates well with what I wrote in the following blogpost recently:

 

 

The following article a few years ago may confirm these concerns:

 

Oil Major Total Sees 10 Million Bpd Supply Gap In 2025, by Tsvetana Paraskova, on Feb 10, 2021, on www.oilprice.com.

 

In 2019 the following was written:

"The IEA’s executive director Fatih Birol was more direct in an interview with CNBC in November. “In other words, the U.S. needs to add one single Russia in seven years’ time in order to avoid a major tightening in the markets,” he said, before adding, “It can happen but it would be a small miracle.”

The bottom line is that the damage to industry balance sheets stemming from the 2014 meltdown has forced a sharp cutback in new development, which sets the market up for a supply shortfall in the first half of the 2020s."

(from the article "Is An Oil Supply Crunch Looming?", on January 26, 2019, on Peak Oil News & Message Boards)

This has been touted by many peakoilers during the last years: underinvestment upstreams will result in supply shortage downstreams. Sooner or later. (Update 5.7.2024: This article in Futubull from June 3, 2024, states: "Due to the green transformation, the oil industry has experienced more than a decade of underinvestment, resulting in the current wave of M&A")

Remember, we are already in a fullblown global energy crisis, according to IEA (which is often very optimistic about the oil industry) on this site. 

What Steve St. Angelo is saying above, is that 2025 will be a milestone, an inflection point in the current collapse of the oil industry, when things will begin to get really serious. 

And if there will be a big oil supply shortage in 2025, expect the collapse of industrial civilization to begin in earnest in 2026, also according to my former calculations.